Evidence-backed match previews for every Sporting CP fixture.

We combine proprietary expected goals modelling, calibration, and live match data to quantify Sporting's edge before every kickoff. Shareable odds, transparent methodology, and daily refreshes.

Last 50 matches: 70% top-pick accuracy Calibrated with isotonic + temperature scaling Snapshot: Dec 16, 2025

Next match

Sporting CP vs Vitória

Kickoff in 3 days 9 hr • Kickoff (your time): Dec 23, 2025, 8:45 PM

Primeira Liga

Sporting CP

55%

Draw / Total xG

29% · 3.30

Vitória

16%

Model edge equals Sporting’s win probability minus the opponent’s win probability. Positive values mean the forecast leans Sporting.

View as pie chart

Likely scorersTeam xG: 2.54

SuárezxG 0.89
TrincãoxG 0.30
ReisxG 0.24

Δ xG share

Suárez+35% xG share
Trincão+12% xG share
Reis+9% xG share

Expected goals over time

Hover to inspect how today's projection expects each side to build chances.

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See full model explanation

Most recent Sporting CP prediction

Kickoff (Lisbon): Dec 18, 2025, 6:45 PM

Model pick: Sporting CP (62%)

Final score: 2-3

Total xG 2.86

Explore full history

Why it works

Built for supporters, disciplined like a trading desk.

Daily recalibration with isotonic + temperature scaling keeps probabilities honest.
Expected goals model blends Sporting-specific features with league-wide priors for sharper away analysis.
Historic accuracy, Brier score, and reliability plots are published in full for accountability.

Read the latest updates

Current table snapshot

Points: 35
Record: 11-2-1
Played: 14 / 34
Remaining: 20
Goals (for/against): 38 / 7
Goal difference: 31

Season projection

10,000 Monte Carlo runs

Expected final points: 75.8
Expected final record: 22.8-7.4-3.8
P5: 67
P50: 76
P95: 84

Current standings

Primeira Liga

#	Team	Pts	GP	W-D-L	GD	Form
1	Porto	40	14	13-1-0	+26	WWWWW
2	Sporting CP	35	14	11-2-1	+31	WDWWW
3	Benfica	32	14	9-5-0	+22	WDWDW
4	Braga	25	14	7-4-3	+14	WWWWL
5	Gil Vicente FC	25	14	7-4-3	+10	DDLDW
6	Famalicão	23	14	6-5-3	+9	WLDLW
7	Vitória	21	14	6-3-5	-2	WDWWL
8	Moreirense	20	14	6-2-6	-3	LDDLW
9	Alverca	17	14	5-2-7	-5	LWWDL
10	Rio Ave	16	14	3-7-4	-5	LWDDL
11	Nacional	15	14	4-3-7	-4	WLLDL
12	Santa Clara	15	14	4-3-7	-4	LWDLL
13	Estoril	14	14	3-5-6	-3	LDLWW
14	Estrela	14	14	3-5-6	-5	LWLDW
15	Arouca	12	14	3-3-8	-22	WLLLL
16	Casa Pia	10	14	2-4-8	-14	DLLDL
17	Tondela	9	14	2-3-9	-17	LLWLD
18	AVS Futebol	3	14	0-3-11	-28	LLLDD