Season projection
Monte Carlo breakdown of Sporting CP's league run-in: expected points, final record, and milestone odds.
Current table snapshot
- Points
- 35
- Record
- 11-2-1
- Played
- 14 / 34
- Remaining
- 20
- Goals (for/against)
- 38 / 7
- Goal difference
- 31
Season projection
10,000 Monte Carlo runs
- Expected final points
- 75.8
- Expected final record
- 22.8-7.5-3.8
- P5
- 67
- P50
- 76
- P95
- 84
Current standings
Primeira Liga
| # | Team | Pts | GP | W-D-L | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 40 | 14 | 13-1-0 | +26 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 35 | 14 | 11-2-1 | +31 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Benfica | 32 | 14 | 9-5-0 | +22 | WDWDW |
| 4 | Braga | 25 | 14 | 7-4-3 | +14 | WWWWL |
| 5 | Gil Vicente FC | 25 | 14 | 7-4-3 | +10 | DDLDW |
| 6 | Famalicão | 23 | 14 | 6-5-3 | +9 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Vitória | 21 | 14 | 6-3-5 | -2 | WDWWL |
| 8 | Moreirense | 20 | 14 | 6-2-6 | -3 | LDDLW |
| 9 | Alverca | 17 | 14 | 5-2-7 | -5 | LWWDL |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 16 | 14 | 3-7-4 | -5 | LWDDL |
| 11 | Nacional | 15 | 14 | 4-3-7 | -4 | WLLDL |
| 12 | Santa Clara | 15 | 14 | 4-3-7 | -4 | LWDLL |
| 13 | Estoril | 14 | 14 | 3-5-6 | -3 | LDLWW |
| 14 | Estrela | 14 | 14 | 3-5-6 | -5 | LWLDW |
| 15 | Arouca | 12 | 14 | 3-3-8 | -22 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 10 | 14 | 2-4-8 | -14 | DLLDL |
| 17 | Tondela | 9 | 14 | 2-3-9 | -17 | LLWLD |
| 18 | AVS Futebol | 3 | 14 | 0-3-11 | -28 | LLLDD |
Projected finish
Primeira Liga
| # | Team | Δ vs current | Mean pts | Median | 90% range | Title % | Top 4 % | Relegation % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | - | 79 | 79 | 70 – 88 | 57.4% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | Sporting CP | - | 76 | 76 | 67 – 84 | 33.5% | 100% | 0% |
| 3 | Benfica | - | 71 | 71 | 62 – 80 | 9% | 99.4% | 0% |
| 4 | Braga | - | 59 | 59 | 50 – 68 | 0.1% | 70.4% | 0% |
| 5 | Famalicão | +1 | 52 | 52 | 43 – 61 | 0% | 13.2% | 0% |
| 6 | Gil Vicente FC | -1 | 51 | 51 | 42 – 60 | 0% | 9.2% | 0% |
| 7 | Vitória | - | 50 | 50 | 40 – 59 | 0% | 6.2% | 0.2% |
| 8 | Moreirense | - | 46 | 46 | 37 – 55 | 0% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| 9 | Rio Ave | +1 | 39 | 39 | 30 – 48 | 0% | 0.1% | 10.6% |
| 10 | Santa Clara | +2 | 39 | 39 | 30 – 48 | 0% | 0.1% | 11.4% |
| 11 | Estoril | +2 | 38 | 38 | 29 – 47 | 0% | 0.1% | 13.1% |
| 12 | Nacional | -1 | 36 | 36 | 28 – 45 | 0% | 0% | 20.1% |
| 13 | Alverca | -4 | 36 | 36 | 28 – 45 | 0% | 0.1% | 21.4% |
| 14 | Tondela | +3 | 36 | 36 | 27 – 45 | 0% | 0% | 27.9% |
| 15 | Arouca | - | 35 | 35 | 26 – 44 | 0% | 0% | 32.2% |
| 16 | Estrela | -2 | 33 | 33 | 25 – 42 | 0% | 0% | 39.4% |
| 17 | Casa Pia | -1 | 33 | 32 | 24 – 42 | 0% | 0% | 48.5% |
| 18 | AVS Futebol | - | 29 | 29 | 20 – 38 | 0% | 0% | 74.3% |
Projected points distribution
Probability mass from the latest Monte Carlo simulation.
League finish probabilities
Chance Sporting lands in each table spot based on the current league projection.
Probability of reaching milestones
Upcoming fixtures
Pick win/draw/loss outcomes for the remaining fixtures to see how the projected finish shifts. Unselected matches stay at the model expectation.
Projected finish
No manual results yet.
| Kickoff (Lisbon) | Opponent | Venue | Win | Draw | Loss | Exp. pts | What-if pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025, 8:45 PM | Vitória | Away | 54.6% | 29.3% | 16.1% | 1.9 | Model expectation: 1.9 pts |
| Dec 28, 2025, 12:00 AM | Rio Ave | Home | 62.3% | 26.7% | 11.0% | 2.1 | Model expectation: 2.1 pts |
| Jan 4, 2026, 12:00 AM | Gil Vicente FC | Away | 59.5% | 26.1% | 14.5% | 2.0 | Model expectation: 2.0 pts |
| Jan 18, 2026, 12:00 AM | Casa Pia | Home | 66.0% | 24.7% | 9.3% | 2.2 | Model expectation: 2.2 pts |
| Jan 25, 2026, 12:00 AM | Arouca | Away | 64.4% | 25.9% | 9.7% | 2.2 | Model expectation: 2.2 pts |
| Feb 1, 2026, 12:00 AM | Nacional | Home | 64.9% | 26.7% | 8.4% | 2.2 | Model expectation: 2.2 pts |
| Feb 8, 2026, 12:00 AM | Porto | Away | 41.1% | 27.9% | 31.0% | 1.5 | Model expectation: 1.5 pts |
| Feb 15, 2026, 12:00 AM | Famalicão | Home | 57.1% | 28.9% | 14.1% | 2.0 | Model expectation: 2.0 pts |
| Feb 22, 2026, 12:00 AM | Moreirense | Away | 61.5% | 27.1% | 11.4% | 2.1 | Model expectation: 2.1 pts |
| Mar 1, 2026, 12:00 AM | Estoril | Home | 63.4% | 25.9% | 10.7% | 2.2 | Model expectation: 2.2 pts |
| Mar 8, 2026, 12:00 AM | Braga | Away | 50.1% | 26.8% | 23.1% | 1.8 | Model expectation: 1.8 pts |
| Mar 15, 2026, 12:00 AM | Tondela | Home | 59.8% | 28.3% | 11.9% | 2.1 | Model expectation: 2.1 pts |
| Mar 22, 2026, 12:00 AM | Alverca | Away | 65.5% | 27.1% | 7.4% | 2.2 | Model expectation: 2.2 pts |
| Apr 4, 2026, 1:00 AM | Santa Clara | Home | 64.0% | 26.1% | 9.9% | 2.2 | Model expectation: 2.2 pts |
| Apr 12, 2026, 1:00 AM | Estrela | Away | 65.5% | 27.1% | 7.4% | 2.2 | Model expectation: 2.2 pts |
| Apr 19, 2026, 1:00 AM | Benfica | Home | 39.6% | 27.8% | 32.5% | 1.5 | Model expectation: 1.5 pts |
| Apr 26, 2026, 1:00 AM | AVS Futebol | Away | 60.3% | 27.6% | 12.1% | 2.1 | Model expectation: 2.1 pts |
| May 3, 2026, 1:00 AM | Vitória | Home | 57.1% | 29.0% | 14.0% | 2.0 | Model expectation: 2.0 pts |
| May 10, 2026, 1:00 AM | Rio Ave | Away | 63.2% | 27.1% | 9.7% | 2.2 | Model expectation: 2.2 pts |
| May 17, 2026, 1:00 AM | Gil Vicente FC | Home | 59.9% | 28.2% | 11.9% | 2.1 | Model expectation: 2.1 pts |
Methodology
How the season projection works
We simulate every remaining Liga Portugal fixture thousands of times using SportingCP.ai match probabilities and tracking every point total hit rate.